The problem with PDM's video is those figures refer only to big box store sales, so they don't include Amazon, which is where the overwhelmingly majority of people get their books. It also doesn't take into account folks for whom their D&D material is wholly digital through D&D Beyond.
I think his sales figures are off in degree, but not in proportion. That is to say that I think that the number of books sold is understated, but that the percentages of the whole for each category are likely fairly accurate. To support this hypothesis, I would look at the products that are offered by Beadle & Grimm for their various lines. One would imagine that modules expected to be more popular would be offered "Platinum" versions or several printings becoming "evergreen" and those expected to sell fewer would get "lesser" editions and/or no reprints.
Looking at those, you see a similar trend. There are products that merit the production of a $300-$500 boxed sets of a single module (usually limited to 1,000 copies) and there are products that are completely passed over. Eberron, Spelljammer, Saltmarsh, Ravenloft, and Fizban warrant "evergreen" products (and it looks like the reprint of Dragonheist suggests that one did too). However, other product lines have been allowed to fade or have never been offered in the first place.
There is not a Radiant Citadel set from them and the Planescape supplement will not, unlike Dragonlance and Spelljammer, include the rule books. This suggests that current Planescape, like older Planescape, is less popular than the others. Still popular enough to warrant a premium product, but not enough to warrant the highest end of one. This could also possibly be because they have seen less demand for the reprinting of the books and more for just their amazing supplemental materials. Since I'm only an owner of every major B&G product so far and not an employee, I cannot say what their calculus is just that it likely reflects the market in some meaningful way.
That's a long way of saying that I think that current D&D has the same problem that older versions of D&D have suffered. Why do I think this? There is a new edition coming out. They can say it isn't a new edition, which is also what they said with 2nd edition and 3.5, but any examination of the playtest rules shows that it includes pretty radical changes. Getting over 10 years in that cycle before it becomes a long tail is great and most Players Handbook sales are going to be to new players, so that shows continued growth. But it looks like it is time to sell to both new and old gamers on that front and what better time than the 50th anniversary?
I'm not as pessimistic as PDM regarding Hasbro wanting to "make everything virtual." I think they want a virtual table top space, and as a D&D Beyond user I'm excited for their offering, but I think they know that Baldur's Gate 3 is different from the normal role playing experience and I think they want to keep that going too. After all, that's the foundation for other stuff, even if other stuff makes more money.
The problem with PDM's video is those figures refer only to big box store sales, so they don't include Amazon, which is where the overwhelmingly majority of people get their books. It also doesn't take into account folks for whom their D&D material is wholly digital through D&D Beyond.
Doug,
I think his sales figures are off in degree, but not in proportion. That is to say that I think that the number of books sold is understated, but that the percentages of the whole for each category are likely fairly accurate. To support this hypothesis, I would look at the products that are offered by Beadle & Grimm for their various lines. One would imagine that modules expected to be more popular would be offered "Platinum" versions or several printings becoming "evergreen" and those expected to sell fewer would get "lesser" editions and/or no reprints.
Looking at those, you see a similar trend. There are products that merit the production of a $300-$500 boxed sets of a single module (usually limited to 1,000 copies) and there are products that are completely passed over. Eberron, Spelljammer, Saltmarsh, Ravenloft, and Fizban warrant "evergreen" products (and it looks like the reprint of Dragonheist suggests that one did too). However, other product lines have been allowed to fade or have never been offered in the first place.
There is not a Radiant Citadel set from them and the Planescape supplement will not, unlike Dragonlance and Spelljammer, include the rule books. This suggests that current Planescape, like older Planescape, is less popular than the others. Still popular enough to warrant a premium product, but not enough to warrant the highest end of one. This could also possibly be because they have seen less demand for the reprinting of the books and more for just their amazing supplemental materials. Since I'm only an owner of every major B&G product so far and not an employee, I cannot say what their calculus is just that it likely reflects the market in some meaningful way.
That's a long way of saying that I think that current D&D has the same problem that older versions of D&D have suffered. Why do I think this? There is a new edition coming out. They can say it isn't a new edition, which is also what they said with 2nd edition and 3.5, but any examination of the playtest rules shows that it includes pretty radical changes. Getting over 10 years in that cycle before it becomes a long tail is great and most Players Handbook sales are going to be to new players, so that shows continued growth. But it looks like it is time to sell to both new and old gamers on that front and what better time than the 50th anniversary?
I'm not as pessimistic as PDM regarding Hasbro wanting to "make everything virtual." I think they want a virtual table top space, and as a D&D Beyond user I'm excited for their offering, but I think they know that Baldur's Gate 3 is different from the normal role playing experience and I think they want to keep that going too. After all, that's the foundation for other stuff, even if other stuff makes more money.